Good Night and Good Luck
Walk the Line
Walk the Line is the one I'd guess would most likely not make the cut. If it doesn't either A History of Violence, or Munich will take its place. Crash is also a possibility of missing the cut, though I'm pretty sure it won't. If not Match Point or the Constant Gardener could.
Ang Lee, Brokeback
Steven Speilberg, Munich
George Clooney, Good night...
Bennet Miller, Capote
David Cronenberg, A History...
The Directing Cetegory often includes a dark horse candidate, so I think cronenberg has a pretty good shot. If Munich did as bad with voters as some are saying Speilberg could miss the cut, but that would be unlikely. The next person who would be added is Paul Haggis for crash.
Then again don't count out Peter Jackson.
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Go
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
I'm taking a chance with Terrence Howard, but he was in so much this year I'm banking on a sort of a cross-film nod. If he doesn't get in I'm .thinking either Jeff Daniels or Ralph Fiennes, and if voters remember, perhaps Russel Crowe
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
There are 4 locks here, and I put Keira here as the 5th since Oscar loves pretty young girls, and especially British gals. Joan Allen could very well be nominated. Charlize Theron is another possibility.
George Clooney, Syriana
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
William Hurt, A History of Violence
Matt Dillon, Crash
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
I'm putting Gyllenhaal here for the 5th spot because of the overall buzz of Brokeback. Bob Hoskins or Don Cheadle could sneak in, but the other 4 are locks.
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Adams could get lost in the shuffle, and Bello might be left out. If so Scarlett Johannson could get in. If not here than Laura Linney or Diane Keaton.