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Monday, November 20, 2006

never too early

So it’s been a week since the midterm election, meaning it’s now time to start speculation on 08.
So here’s my very early predictions:

1) Barack Obama: He has momentum, he has a clean record, he was against the war in Iraq. He has Oprah’s endorsment, and is an incredible campaigner. Really nothing against him except a lack of experience, which may be a good thing considering the anti-incumbent environment of the midterm. However, his religiosity may hurt him among the far left of the party.
2) Evan Bayh: Remember this name: he’s a great speaker, is seen as strong in both fiscal and foreign policy areas among both parties, and he has experience on a number of levels. Lack of star power could hurt, and his record on Iraq also won’t help.
3) Hillary Clinton: Did surprisingly well among moderates in the last election. Has the kind of star power to energize base. However, would open up a huge amount of anti-Clinton sentiment still lingering among the right.
4) Al Gore: His time away from politics; his movie, his SNL appearance, have really remade his image. Plus he’s won the popular vote once before, and with global warming a more accepted issue he could play quite well. However, more so than Hillary, he’d be seen as a hearkening back to the Clinton years, which may not be a good thing inside the party.
5) John Edwards: Unlike Kerry he’s been pretty quiet since the 04 Election. He’s charismatic, and likeable. But losing in 04 may be too much of an obstacle to overcome.

1) Rudy Giuliani: Plays to the GOP’s strengths (ie. 9/11), and would most likely pick up the largest amount of independents and democrats of any possible contender. However, his rocky personal life, and non-party views on social issues, leave him vulnerable, more so from within the party.
2) John McCain: Would pick up a lot of moderates. Has a huge level of bi-partisan respect, and is seen as more of an independent. However, after being crushed by a dirty ’00 primary, his image isn’t quite what it used to be. Plus, he’s looking kinda old.
3) Mitt Romney: Charismatic, likeable, a great campaigner. He could be the best choice as far as a conservative with wide appeal. However, his being Mormon won’t help him in the south, or with evangelicals, who don’t consider it a Christian Religion. His views on Iraq could also hurt him among moderates, after seeing what happened in the midterm election.
4) Bill Frist: The neo-con choice, would energize the base of the religious right, and the same people who voted loyally for Bush. However, his long tenure in the Senate leaves him pretty open to attacks on his record, and his views on social issues, especially his comments on gays, will hurt him among moderates.
5) Newt Gingrich: His time away from the GOP leadership has moved him more towards the middle, giving him more of a maverick image, which has helped him of late. But his is not likely a direction the republicans want to take. He also has a messy personal

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