Blog Archive

Saturday, February 23, 2008

2008 Oscar Predix

So I've been wrong the last few years in the major categories, but a surprisingly good streak with the tech awards has kept my percentage around 80%. This year looks to continue that sreak...

Bold=will win

Italics=potential upset

*=who I’d vote for

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton If TWBB and No Country split the vote
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood*

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman - Juno
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood*

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney - Michael Clayton the academy really loves him.
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood*
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her-the favorite here
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose-but she does everything in this role that Oscar voters love to award.
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page – Juno- The new kid never really wins but she could if the academy is voting for who’d give the most interesting speech.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men One of the few real sure things of the night.
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild If anyone else wins it will be the venerable veteran. This category frequently serves as something of a defacto lifetime achievement award.
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-the toughest of the night
Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There I switched this at the last minute. The one thing that almost certainly=oscar is playing the other gender.
Ruby Dee - American Gangster*
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton- The type of role voters like, and this category often is a consolation prize to the film they really liked but didn’t vote for.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Christopher Hampton – Atonement could very well pull this off because it was such a popular book and they seemed to have liked the film.
Sarah Polley - Away From Her
Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly A very dark horse; if the Oscars go with degree of difficulty.
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men would be a shoe in if McCarthy was also nominated.
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood* Then again 80% of this script was original.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody – Juno-Oscar loves nothing more than a rags to riches type story.
Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl*
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton if the night starts to go here. Plus Gilroy’s written some great stuff in the past
Brad Bird – Ratatouille- Probably has a shot as a consolation prize for not getting a Best pic nod.
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR

The two categories, year in and year out, the Oscars always screw up on is this one and original song. And this year’s even stranger with the two major nominees not nominated here (Rose and Diving Bell).
Beaufort (Israel)
The Counterfeiters (Austria) Has the strongest buzz-well the only buzz.
Katyn (Poland)
Mongol (Kazakhstan) If Hollywood feels the need to apologize to the Kazaks. Plus it’s a war epic and voters love those.

12 (Russia)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Persepolis
Ratatouille The other sure thing of the night.
Surf’s Up

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
Atonement
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
The Golden Compass
Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
There Will Be Blood
Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson*
Fisk is a legend and this has also won most of the tech awards to this point.

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey – Atonement Deakins most likely splits his vote, and while there aren’t any DP’s more respected than Kaminski out there, Atonement is a film that lends itself to this category.
Janusz Kaminski - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Roger Deakins - No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit - There Will Be Blood* won all the tech awards and also did a great job with Michael Clayton.

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Albert Wolsky - Across the Universe
Jacqueline Durran – Atonement Once again fits the mold.
Alexandra Byrne - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Marit Allen - La Vie en Rose if the Oscars are really feeling this.
Colleen Atwood - Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street*

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight This is always an odd category, so nothing’s every a sure thing. This is sort of a safe pick, but Sicko’s also by far Moore’s most accessible and politically neutral film to date, and voters may feel obligated to apologize for their unprecedented backlash against the man after 2004.
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko*
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Christopher Rouse - The Bourne Ultimatum has won the right precursor awards.
Juliette Welfling - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jay Cassidy - Into the Wild
Roderick Jaynes - No Country for Old Men* Usually this goes with the BP winner, and I really was blown away with the editing, but am not sure how excited the Academy would be to give the award to a pseudonym.
Dylan Tichenor - There Will Be Blood

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald - La Vie en Rose-Really deserving, won the techies, and the phrase “…Oscar winning film Norbit,” is so wrong on so many levels.
Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji - Norbit
Ve Neill and Martin Samuel - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Dario Marianelli – Atonement the kind of score Oscar loves.
Alberto Iglesias - The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard - Michael Clayton
Michael Giacchino – Ratatouille This really has a great shot, especially if the Oscars feel that this film got snubbed. Also MG does the amazing music for Lost, so if that counts for something.
Marco Beltrami - 3:10 to Yuma

*I’d write in There Will Be Blood in 14pt black sharpie.

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Falling Slowly” - Once
Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova* Both deserving and Once really deserved more recognition. I would hesitate because this category never gets it right, but with the three Enchanted songs splitting the vote, and no one seeing August Rush, I think this is a safe bet.

“Happy Working Song” - Enchanted
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
”Raise It Up” - August Rush Then again this category never gets it right.
Nominees to be determined “So Close” - Enchanted
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“That’s How You Know” - Enchanted
Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis - The Bourne Ultimatum these categories are so difficult to distinguish.
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland - No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane - Ratatouille
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe - 3:10 to Yuma
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin – Transformers If the Oscars want the longest losing streak to end. Then again do they really want to give more love to Transformers?

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg - The Bourne Ultimatum*
Skip Lievsay - No Country for Old Men
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers - Ratatouille
Matthew Wood - There Will Be Blood
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins - Transformers

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood - The Golden Compass
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier – Transformers

Other predix:
Running time: The oscars will go 18 minutes over...

Most memorable speech: Diablo Cody

Most of the jokes will be at the expense of the Producer's and the current election

Over/under on:

"I drink your milkshake" lines: 2

Jokes about the ending of No Country: 3

Jokes related to Juno and Jamie Lynn Spears: 1.5

Awkward presenter pairings: 5

Superfluous tributes: 3

Memorable Gaffes: 1

Horrid dance numbers: push

Standing ovations: 3

appearances by animated characters: 1

most hostess products eaten by Bruce Villanch during a commercial break: 4

Cut aways to:

Jack Nicholson: 3

Halle Berry: 2

Will Smith: 2

Ellen Page: 3

Seth Rogan: 0

George Clooney: 5

Steve Carrell: 1

Hal Holbrook: 2

Ruby Dee: 3

Ryan Gosling: 1



2 comments:

Spenturion said...

I looked down at my phone to see the time and it was 9:48. Exactly 18 minutes over. Uncanny, my friend.

erin said...

You were right on except for the ones I was the most "whaaa-?" about. "...Blood" was totally robbed for art direction, though the academy can't not give at least one artsy award to a Tim Burton film so that wasn't too shocking.