Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Fun with the Electoral Map
My Prediction: McCain 236, Obama 302.
The reason my map is much closer is that I give McCain Missouri, or rather Missoura. As well as Florida, I think the gap between the solid turnout of the elderly and the often hard to predict turnout of the youth vote, will make the difference. Indiana's the major toss-up state, tied in nearly all of the polls, and I have it going to McCain mainly since it's not got Democratic in the last half-century. Obama's leading in Colorado in 9/10 polls, but only by an avg of 4 points, which I think, due to Colorado's disproportionally large evangelical vote, could be over come by McCain. I could also give McCain New Hampshire, just because they seem to love him there, but that's a long shot.
-McCain's largest lead in the polls is in Nebraska (by 33 points) and UT (31). Obama's largest is in DC, where in one poll he has nearly 90% of the vote, and an avg of (80 points) and Illinois where he's around 26 points. McCain has larger leads in the state's he's winning, but winning fewer states. In fact, while Obama's up 25 in his home state, McCain's Arizona is, according to a few sources, close to being a toss-up, with the last polls avg. a 5% (accrdng to the latest Rasmussen poll) lead for McCain, and a surging support for Obama among the Hispanic community. Obama is also within 4 points in western states which have started to lean Dem over the last few years: North Dakota, Montana, and he's up by an avg. of 2.5 in Nevada.
- And these polling numbers would have been unheard of even a few months ago"
Obama is within 5 in Georgia (one poll w/in the last week has him with a 1 point lead, another within the last week has him within 1), ahead in 8 of 10 polls taken w/in the last week for North Carolina, and within 8 in West Virginia and 9 in South Dakota. I mentioned the race tightening in AZ earlier. McCain appears to be pulling away in Kentucky and Louisiana; he has a 12 point lead in both.
-The Dakota's will be interesting to see because of the less-reported voter intimidation and/or fraud that was perpetuated against the large Native American community in those states in 04. McCain has been courting the Native American vote since he's been on the Indian Affairs Committee. However, the disproportionate number of Native service women/men, as well as the the fact that many of the Rez's, already in near third world conditions, have for the past decade been overrun with meth and gang violence, complicates things.
-Weather always plays an important role in voter turnout, but also in other ways:
here's the early forecast from weather.com in important areas:
Denver, CO Sunny, 60F
Las Vegas, NV Sunny, 75F
Albuquerque, NM Sunny, 65F
Billings, MT Scattered Showers, 49F
Kansas City, MO Sunny, 64F
St. Louis, MO Scattered Showers, 67F
Minneapolis, MN Showers, 54F
Milwaukee, WI Scattered Showers, 57F
Indianapolis, IN Scattered Showers, 65F
Cleveland, OH Scattered Showers, 60F
Cincinnati, OH Scattered Showers, 65F
Pittsburgh, PA Scattered Showers, 58F
Philadelphia, PA Showers, 58F
Manchester, NH Scattered Showers, 54F
Arlington, VA Scattered Showers, 62F
Roanoke, VA Rain/Snow Showers, 49F
Charlotte, NC Scattered Showers, 61F
Atlanta, GA Mostly Sunny, 65F
Jacksonville, FL Mostly Sunny, 74F
Miami, FL Scattered T-Storms, 80F
This is somewhat bad news for Obama, most notably the Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Miami forecasts, depending on how scattered the rain is. There are still far fewer voting machines in urban areas, and with last election having to wait in lines over 4 hours long in some places. Some have estimated that in Ohio alone some 15,000 voters gave up waiting in line or had to leave for other commitments. And given the fact that many of these people work long hours, if not two jobs, or have child care to worry about, a long line in the rain can hurt voter turnout. That and the fact we have daylight savings time the weekend before, though any effect of that will be negligible. It's just strange that's when Congress decided to place the time change.
Hopefully, we can one day hold these over a weekend.
Obama's Plan for Indian Country